History suggests the Seattle SuperSonics are in line for success now that Kevin Durant has been named the 2007-08 NBA Rookie of the Year.
Nine of the past 11 winners of the award have gone on to lead their respective teams to the postseason. Only Portland's Brandon Roy, from the 2006 draft class, and Charlotte's Emeka Okafor, from the 2004 draft class, have yet to lead their teams to the playoffs.
But there is a formula to how those nine players and their teams did it. The common denominators are defense, veterans and a second star to complement the Rookie of the Year.
Before the Sonics become a playoff team, they must address each category.
Excluding Durant, the Sonics' season-ending roster this year had an average age of 26.3 years. The Sonics also allowed 106.3 points per game and had no consistent scoring threat after Durant.
That's a stark difference from the model that's been duplicated over the past 10 years with teams containing a former Rookie of the Year.
Since 1998, every team with the top rookie has found success when their rosters had an average age ranging from 27.4 years old to 29.6 years old and when they allowed fewer than 98 points per game. Those teams also had a star to aide their Rookie of the Year.
Non-coincidentally, the Bobcats have yielded at least 100 points per game in each of Okafor's four seasons. And with Greg Oden out for the entire season, the Blazers didn't have a star player to complement Roy, while the team's average age this season was just 23.9 years old.
Memphis is an exception to the age factor. The Grizzlies made the playoffs in 2003-04 with an average age of just 24.2 years old excluding 2002 winner Pau Gasol. But Memphis had key veteran contributors in then-28-year-old Jason Williams and James Posey and Bonzi Wells, both 27 at that time. That team, it's also worth noting, had another former Rookie of the Year winner in Mike Miller and allowed only 94.3 points.
The Clippers, with 2000 co-winner Elton Brand, made the playoffs in 2005-06 with an average age of 26.8 years old, not including him. But Los Angeles allowed only 95.6 points per game that season and had key veterans in Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley.
Tim Duncan, the 1998 winner, helped San Antonio reach the second round of the playoffs as a rookie. He joined a Spurs team with an average age of 29.2 years old excluding Duncan, and the Spurs allowed only 88.5 points per game that year and already had a star in David Robinson.
It took 1999 winner Vince Carter two years to make the playoffs. But when his Toronto team made the franchise's first postseason appearance in 1999-2000, the Raptors had an average age of 29.6 years old excluding Carter and second-leading scorer, then-20-year-old Tracy McGrady.
The model is proven in 2000 with co-winner Steve Francis, in 2001 with Miller, in 2003 with Amare Stoudemire, in 2004 with LeBron James and in 2006 with Chris Paul.
Surround Durant with a second star, some savvy veterans and a defensive-minded approach and history says the Sonics will be in the playoffs.
